The Soludo–Odinkalu Debate: Beyond GDP, Tax Visibility, Productivity and the Future of the South East Economy, By Dr. Oracle Nwala, mni
I have carefully reflected on the remarks attributed to Professor Charles Soludo and the response by Professor Chidi Odinkalu. Both contributions have enriched an important conversation about the economic future of the South East and its place within the Nigerian federation.
While the debate has largely centred on GDP figures and regional relevance, I believe the more important issues lie elsewhere. As someone who approaches this discussion through the lens of tax policy, public finance, and economic development strategy, I see a deeper conversation about productivity, tax contribution, economic visibility, and the quality of data that shapes public policy.
Both Professor Soludo and Professor Odinkalu raise valid points. Yet neither position fully captures the broader reality. The real question is not whether the South East contributes 8%, 10%, or 15% of Nigeria’s GDP. Rather, it is whether the region’s well known entrepreneurial strength is adequately reflected in measurable economic indicators, tax records and development outcomes.
It is from this perspective that I examine both arguments, highlighting where they are persuasive, where they require further scrutiny, and what available tax and economic evidence suggests about the opportunities and challenges facing the South East.
Where Soludo’s Argument Requires Further Examination
Governor Soludo rightly draws attention to the importance of measurable productivity in a federation where economic contribution often shapes policy focus and investment decisions. His concern about the economic cost of prolonged disruptions to commercial activity is also valid. Any region that repeatedly interrupts trade, transport, education and manufacturing will inevitably experience reduced productivity, weaker investment confidence, and lower tax generation.
However, the reliance on GDP as a near definitive measure of regional relevance requires caution. GDP does not fully capture human capital, informal sector activity, entrepreneurship, remittances, or dispersed commercial networks that define much of Nigeria’s economic reality.
The South East occupies a distinct place in Nigeria’s commercial system. Its entrepreneurs are deeply embedded in wholesale trade, manufacturing, distribution and informal commerce across the country. Much of this activity is recorded where businesses are registered rather than where value is created or where economic actors originate. This naturally affects how regional output is reflected in official statistics.
Where Odinkalu’s Position Requires Further Consideration
Professor Odinkalu is right to emphasise that governance must remain grounded in constitutional duty rather than economic ranking. The protection of citizens and the guarantee of dignity cannot depend on a region’s contribution to GDP. Every part of the country is entitled to equal protection and attention.
He is also correct that Nigeria’s informal economy is substantial and that official statistics often fail to capture the full scale of productive activity. This creates distortions in how economic realities are represented.
That said, economic indicators still play a central role in policy design. They are essential tools for planning, resource allocation, and performance evaluation. While they should not be used to rank human worth, they remain critical to understanding development outcomes.
It is also important to note that population share does not automatically translate into GDP share. Differences in infrastructure, investment concentration, urbanisation and industrial base naturally produce variations in output across regions.
The Tax Visibility Perspective
I respectfully submit that ehe more important issue is not simply GDP but tax visibility.
A recurring structural challenge in the South East is the gap between economic vibrancy and formal tax representation. Much of the region’s commercial activity is informal, cash based, lightly documented and often registered outside the region.
As a result, a significant portion of wealth generated by South Eastern entrepreneurs is reflected in tax records and economic statistics of other commercial centres rather than within the South East itself. This creates a clear paradox: strong economic activity on the ground but limited visibility in formal data systems.
In fiscal policy, visibility matters. Economic activity that is not captured in tax records, business registrations, employment data or official statistics has limited influence on policy priorities and resource allocation.
Why Tax Indices Matter Beyond Numbers
From a policy perspective, weak tax visibility has broader consequences. It affects investor confidence, infrastructure planning, credit assessment, development financing and perceptions of economic strength.
In practical terms, what is not measured is often not prioritised. This is why improving tax visibility is not only an administrative concern but a strategic development imperative.
The Challenge of Formalisation
The task ahead is not simply the creation of wealth but the effective translation of that wealth into the formal economy.
The South East’s challenge is to deepen formalisation so that economic activity is properly recorded, taxed and reflected in national data systems. In the final analysis, stronger visibility will strengthen its position in fiscal negotiations and development planning.
Conclusion
Professor Odinkalu is right to insist that citizenship, security, and human dignity cannot be measured by GDP rankings. The necessary extrapolation thereto is that every region and every citizen deserves equal protection under the law.
In the same vein, Governor Soludo is equally right to highlight the economic consequences of sustained disruptions to commercial life and the importance of measurable productivity in a competitive federation.
From a tax and public policy perspective, however, the more important lesson lies beyond the debate over percentages. The real issue is that a region widely recognised for enterprise and innovation continues to underperform in the indicators that shape policy attention, investment flows and fiscal decisions.
The South East does not lack enterprise. Its challenge lies in ensuring that enterprise is fully translated into formal economic activity, stronger tax visibility, reliable data systems sustainable industrial growth, and institutions capable of capturing its true economic value.
In today’s economy, visibility matters. What is not measured is often overlooked, and what is overlooked is often under-prioritised. The path forward therefore lies not in disputing statistics alone, but in building an economy whose productivity, tax contribution, and development impact are too significant to ignore.
If you do not say you are there, they may conclude you are not.
Dr. Oracle Nwala, mni
Federal Commissioner/ Chairman
Tax Appeal Tribunal
South East Zone
