No doubt this election is going to be a real battle between Ize-Iyamu of APC and Godwin Obaseki of PDP.
Likely voting pattern:
IZE IYAMU is good to go in the following LGs
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1 Orhionmwon
2 Ovia South West
3 Umumwode
4 Etsako East
5 Owan East
6 Owan West
7 Akoko Edo
VS
GODWIN OBASEKI is expected to win in
1 Oredo
2 Egor
3 Ikoba okha
4 Esan South East
5 Esan North East
6 Esan West
7 Esan Central
8 Igueben
BATTLE GROUND
1 Ovia North East
2 Etsako West
3 Etsako Central
In analyzing the battle ground,
1. ETSAKO WEST
It is the largest local government in the area with headquarters in Auchi. Adams Oshiomhole is from this council. This is one local government APC is certain of victory. Gani Audu, running mate of Ize-Iyamu, is from Aiwain ward in the local government.
The defection of Obaseki’s deputy, Comrade Philip Shaibu, along with his boss to the PDP is the only reason the APC’s winning margin may be reduced in Etsako west. APC defeated PDP with over 18,000 votes during the 2016 governorship election.
The PDP may just narrow the margin this time around following the defection of Shaibu, who before now was Oshiomhole’s political godson.
While Auchi with four out of the 12 wards in the council appears to still be in firm control of the APC, same cannot be said of the four wards within the Uzaire clan, where Oshiomhole and Shaibu hail from. Shaibu’s case is aided by the fact that he is from Jattu, which is the biggest of all the Uzaire communities and the clan capital. Jattu is about the only community among the clan that has a ward of its own. Many in Edo are of the view that Shaibu will at least deliver the Jattu ward to the PDP since it appears the people of the area have chosen him over Oshiomhole going by recent events. A victory margin of about 6,000 for the APC here would be considered as achievement for the PDP.
ETSAKO CENTRAL
This is the smallest among the three Etsako councils. This council usually turns in a relatively small vote and the trend is not expected to change in 2020.
This is one local government PDP may hope to spring a surprise. The party lost with about 1,500 votes in 2016. This year, PDP will be looking forward to the likes of Dan Orbih, its former state chairman, and Mike Oghiadomhe, a former deputy governor in the state, to turn the tide.
OVIA NORTH-EAST: is another BATTLEGROUND which I listed.
Ovia North East is another rural council consisting of numerous communities. Okada, the capital, is home to the famous Igbinedion family. Gabriel, patriarch of the family and the Esama of Benin; Lucky, his son and former governor, and Omosede, his daughter, were part of the people who facilitated the defection of Obaseki to the PDP.
By so doing, the family finally ditched Ize-Iyamu, a long time ally. The family, however, must curtail the influence of Dennis Idahosa, lawmaker representing Ovia federal constituency. The political greenhorn had pulled the rug off the feet of Omosede in the 2019 general election. He has since grown in popularity and would want to prove a point to the Igbinedions.
Another negative for Obaseki is an unfulfilled electoral promise to develop a sea port in Gelegele community in the council. The crowd that graced a campaign rally held for Ize-Iyamu in the community on Monday was unprecedented. Obaseki and the PDP must pray that the ripple effect does no go beyond Gelegele to other communities.
