2027 Has Started Too Early: Lessons From Edo And Warning Signs For Abia
By Obinna Oriaku
Unfortunately, the permutations for the 2027 elections have begun prematurely, even though our Governor has been in election mode since late last year.
His frequent visits to churches are heavily laden with election rhetoric, despite assurances that governance, not campaigning, should now take precedence following the conclusion of the 2023 elections.
No two elections are ever exactly the same. Politics and elections are dynamic, constantly influenced by a range of evolving factors.
In Abia, the divide between “us” and “them” continues to widen, often sidelining objectivity. This growing chasm presents significant challenges for any political strategy.
The experience of Governor Godwin Obaseki in Edo State frequently comes to mind when considering Abia’s future heading into 2027.
Forget the narratives of intimidation, rigging, and election irregularities; a reliable report by Ossy Chidoka confirmed that both the PDP and APC engaged in electoral malpractice.
Despite Obaseki’s elitist achievements, he never established a genuine social connection with the people. Infrastructure development — roads, bridges, and the like — cannot substitute for meaningful engagement with the grassroots.
What, then, is the reward system of the current government? It is telling that nearly 80% of those who contributed significantly to the 2023 victory are now excluded from the corridors of power, while individuals with ancestral ties from distant regions like Sokoto have been brought into the administration. Politics is a game of interests, and emotions have little place within it.
Only this week, I highlighted that over 99% of contractors currently operating in the state are non-Abians. The electoral implications are profound. A similar scenario contributed to Fayemi’s defeat in Ekiti State, where contractors from Lagos even supplied wood for local projects. In Abia, I heard that at ABSU, contractors began dumping construction materials for a new hotel project without prior notice, to the surprise of the university’s management and council. This overconcentration of opportunities in the hands of a few, aimed at maximizing personal gain, exemplifies unbridled greed, and critically, there is no social connection to these jobs.
Can we truly expect pensioners, civil servants, local government workers, and politicians who gave their all in 2023 to mobilize with the same enthusiasm in 2027? I have serious doubts; the palpable anger among these groups cannot be ignored.
Typically, before or during elections, local contractors would rally their villages, encouraging support for the administration that empowered them economically. As Ojukwu famously said, “I am involved.”
However, in this case, the so-called “briefcase contractors” will likely be focused on their home states, not Abia.
Obaseki’s refusal to swear in 14 elected Edo House members, coupled with numerous anti-people policies devoid of empathy, was his ultimate undoing.
If I were a relative of one of those 14 House members, no amount of gold-paved roads could erase the memory of how they were unjustly treated — just as Abia’s civil service directors and permanent secretaries were dismissed without just cause.
The decision to alienate almost everyone, except long-time associates, is a grave political miscalculation with inevitable consequences. Those in power would do well to study both the immediate and underlying reasons behind Edo’s political revolt, even when the alternative was less than desirable.
Today, the APC and PDP find themselves in closer alignment than ever. For the average PDP member, working with the APC feels more natural than collaborating with the platforms currently associated with the ruling administration.
The absence of a clearly defined political platform remains a major liability for the Labour Party. The hurried coalition that occurred in the months leading up to the 2023 elections is unlikely to be replicated.
It would be a mistake to base electoral projections on social media enthusiasm; the Labour Party’s experience in Edo remains a fresh and painful lesson.
Call it the unveiling of political trade secrets, if you will. It matters little; my principal’s mind is made up. He is unlikely to reconsider or revise any of these decisions.
Underestimating the APC’s preparedness is a grave error. The newfound unity within Abia APC is alarming for any serious political observer.
Indeed, it is God who makes kings, but He uses people to accomplish His will. Political success requires both divine grace and strategic human action.
Recently, due to the temporary closure of Enugu Airport, I traveled through Owerri Airport after four years. I was surprised to find that Governor Hope Uzodinma had completed the associated access road projects. Given this, it is bewildering to see the exaggerated celebration over the Umuahia-Abriba road, as if such basic infrastructural developments are rare feats — especially considering that many travelers pass through Mbaise road from Owerri.
Those who overhype what should be the standard in governance have serious soul-searching to do.
Ekwedike.
